This means that if global temperatures have risen by 2☌ at the point we reach net zero, the final temperature change could be above 2.3☌. However, once this ice melts this reflection is replaced by absorption of solar energy, which drives temperatures even higher.'Įven current climate models show these processes could cause significant warming after net zero-with an estimated 1 in 6 chance this warming could exceed 15% of total global warming. 'As we have observed in the Arctic Ocean, and recently in the Antarctic, a thin layer of floating ice helps reduce global temperatures by reflecting the sun's energy back into space. 'The melting of ice in polar regions is one example,' explained Prof Martin Siegert of the University of Exeter, another of the study's authors. CO 2 emissions have influenced many of these, triggering long-term changes which could last for centuries after net zero is reached. Global temperatures are regulated by multiple natural processes and feedbacks in the oceans, land, and atmosphere. Why would global warming continue in a net zero world? Our remaining carbon budget may be smaller than we think. And history teaches us that political obstacles can be overcome,' he wrote in an editorial accompanying the article, also published in Frontiers in Science. 'It reminds us that the obstacles to climate action are neither physical nor technological.

Prof Michael Mann at the University of Pennsylvania said that despite its alarming message on the prospect of continued global warming, this study offers hope.

'Crucially for policy, a world that expects warming to continue after net zero will have an even smaller carbon budget to keep total warming below 1.5☌.'

'The potential of future climate risks in a net zero world makes the need to limit our initial disturbance to the planet even more imperative,' she added. 'Our analysis identifies the levers of global warming after net zero, and explains why current estimates are so uncertain,' said lead author Sofia Palazzo Corner, also of Imperial College London. The article presents the first comprehensive analysis of the many factors controlling global temperatures and provides a framework for improving warming predictions. 'Worldwide emissions reduction plans overlook this important risk, which should be urgently addressed at COP28.' 'These estimates come with substantial uncertainty, meaning there is a non-negligible chance that global warming will continue after net zero and intensify dangerous climate change,' said Prof Joeri Rogelj at Imperial College London and one of the international team of authors. Though the scientific community's current best estimate from models is that global warming will stop at net zero, an article published in Frontiers in Science raises a red flag.

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